Friendship is Dragons
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Page 914 - Mafia, Part 13
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36 Comments:
Good news, 2 down 2 to go.
Bad news, Pinkie Pie is dead.
Bad news, Pinkie Pie is dead.
I have read the night phases so I know who is who, and won't spoil it but in either scenario Pinkie is basically hosed, or has hosed everyone else unless she's a civilian bluffing really hard. And even then is still hosed.
If Pinkie's the cop: she just painted a huge target on her back meaning The nurse will likely choose to save her. Which means the mafia has three choices involving Pinkie. To take advantage of the Nurse choosing to save Pinkie by virtue of protecting the exposed cop, and instead take out two others. All while throwing suspicion on Pinkie of lying and being mafia for how why would mafia target fellow mafia except to cover their own flank. They could also target her figuring nurse might not or still might and just take someone else out, keeping everyone confused, especially if nurse doesn't save her but Pinkie surviving still looks suspicious, as mafia could have double tapped the other target. Or they could double tap Pinkie, doing her in for sure.
If Pinkie is Mafia: There is only two real possibilities. They either double tap a target to keep Pinkie's cover figuring the nurse tries to save her. Or they just do two others in to finish things quicker exposing Pinkie as not a target in spite of announcing herself a cop which makes her look like Mafia.
If Pinkie is Civilian: Nurse tries to protect her leaving real cops exposed potentially as other targets, or Pinkie gets double tapped. Or the nurse doesn't protect her, and Pinkie is done in anyways.
Of them the only situation where Pinkie has a real chance or choice to lead towards survival/success is if she is Mafia. Least from my pondering.
MY big worry is that the nurse will figure that Pinkie's the next target and aim to save her, only to be feinted out and two totally different targets are selected, leaving the teams 2-on-2, and best case scenario is a draw, provided that the mafia don't convince a non- to vote against the other non-.
Yeah, the Mafia's got a tough choice against them here. (I have read the night phases so I know who's who, but to keep it spoiler free:)
1. If Pinkie is Mafia, or if she's actually a cop and the Nurse saves her while they target someone else, then they've just set up for the scenario Freelance mentioned. 2 remaining mafia vs the remaining two Townies.
2. If Pinkie is a cop as she claimed, then the mafia can combo-vote her and stop the nurse from saving her. Leaves it as 2v3, but guaranteed one cop out and they just gotta get lucky with catching the other. One more night phase at the very least, and if they can get one of the good guys taken out in tomorrow's lynch then that's that.
3. If Pinkie is a cop and the nurse saves her, but the Mafia pick her and another, then it comes down to luck on whether they catch the Nurse or not. If they don't, the cops' detective work tonight will reveal the final mafia one way or another and a 3 person majority means that the voting is final and done. Town wins.
1. If Pinkie is Mafia, or if she's actually a cop and the Nurse saves her while they target someone else, then they've just set up for the scenario Freelance mentioned. 2 remaining mafia vs the remaining two Townies.
2. If Pinkie is a cop as she claimed, then the mafia can combo-vote her and stop the nurse from saving her. Leaves it as 2v3, but guaranteed one cop out and they just gotta get lucky with catching the other. One more night phase at the very least, and if they can get one of the good guys taken out in tomorrow's lynch then that's that.
3. If Pinkie is a cop and the nurse saves her, but the Mafia pick her and another, then it comes down to luck on whether they catch the Nurse or not. If they don't, the cops' detective work tonight will reveal the final mafia one way or another and a 3 person majority means that the voting is final and done. Town wins.
Why worry about the nurse saving Pinkie when you can just take out the nurse? Whose identity was pretty much given away in the previous comic.
Plot Twist: Pinkie is playing Town of Salem, and is the Jester.
Only because RD made herself suspicious doesn't mean that PP is saved. While it means that they'll probably split up their kills because the two appear to be the cops (or RD being the nurse... If RD dies and she turns out to be a civilian that trolled them Jester style, it would be amazing), the nurse would need to come to the conclusion that she needs to save PP.
If RD IS a civilian and tries to troll the mafia, worst case scenario would be the nurse saving RD.
If RD IS a civilian and tries to troll the mafia, worst case scenario would be the nurse saving RD.
I was expecting Rarity to sell out one of the other mafia members to gain trust.
A legitimate strategy, FYI.
A legitimate strategy, FYI.
Dunno. This late in the game I kinda figure she's clever enough to take the hit in order to get a win for her side.
She was burned and knew it. Anything else could have jeopardized her side
She was burned and knew it. Anything else could have jeopardized her side
For some reason Dr. Whooves gives me the impression of "I have no idea what's happening, but it sounds fascinating"
I dunno what, but something.
My guess is that he's listening in on all of this and making his own quiet deductions about what's going on. He doesn't need to say anything himself unless it's necessary to tip a needle.
Gee Soarin, that's an interesting thing to say. Trying to send a message to a mafia partner?
Also, I should have said the other day, the Mafia power of "forgo a kill to guarantee a kill" makes no sense to ever use in a game with only one Nurse. The Nurse can only protect one player, so the Mafia is guaranteed a kill anyway, and if both go through they'd have won.
Also, I should have said the other day, the Mafia power of "forgo a kill to guarantee a kill" makes no sense to ever use in a game with only one Nurse. The Nurse can only protect one player, so the Mafia is guaranteed a kill anyway, and if both go through they'd have won.
So, at this point we have Trixie, Fluttershy, Pinkie, RD, Soarin and Doc Hooves left?
Does the mafia win if they're the only ones left or just if they off all the civilians?
Does the mafia win if they're the only ones left or just if they off all the civilians?
yeah honestly I'd ignore Pinkie and kill two random people. Even if I don't catch any cop, with the same number of mafia/non mafia the game's done. And the nurse is likely to try and protect Pinkie for exposing herself like that.
As you say, the Nurse's job is substantially harder, she's got far less chances to pick a target the Mafia picks, and at this point the game is pretty much down to luck, even if the Nurse is pretty good at reading people. Removing 1 cop (when nothing in the game changes unless both cops are out) is a far less appealing choice than /probably/ removing 2 players and ensuring win by outnumbering.
As you say, the Nurse's job is substantially harder, she's got far less chances to pick a target the Mafia picks, and at this point the game is pretty much down to luck, even if the Nurse is pretty good at reading people. Removing 1 cop (when nothing in the game changes unless both cops are out) is a far less appealing choice than /probably/ removing 2 players and ensuring win by outnumbering.
If the cops choose the right person, then they know who the last mafia members are. There're six people left: 2 cops, 2 mafia, the nurse and the last civilian.
Since Pinkie's put up a hard fight for RD, we can assume that the cops've already checked her out. If their choice is the last non-mafia, then by elimination, they know who the final mafia are.
Since Pinkie's put up a hard fight for RD, we can assume that the cops've already checked her out. If their choice is the last non-mafia, then by elimination, they know who the final mafia are.
Also, any of you guys with SC2 (the paid version, unfortunately. The mod requires expansion content) out there should absolutely try out Starcraft mafia. It can be a little clunky if you're new to it, and the community isn't particularly noob-friendly, but after a few games to get your feet wet it's absolutely a great way to kill some time.
The reason I have trouble with this kinda game is that I'm really bad at lying. I'm not quite to the point of 'shout out what I am', but I can't convincingly deny an accusation. Best I can do is not comment.
With this stupid rule that mafia can force a kill by attacking one person twice, it doesn't matter who the nurse is. Pinky Pie is dead anyway.
So is the mafia able to perform 2 kill shots no matter what? i was under the impression that was due to the number of players they had to start with, but if that's the case losing half the mafia should reduce how many they can kill, right?
Well, at this point you can kind of figure that the nurse is going to select pinkie pie, or rainbow dash. So, if you're mafia tonight you go for the other two town members. You get at least one cop, and maybe even the nurse in the process. Then it narrows it to a 2 v 2 game. Mafia wins.
Though, with the mafia killing two people each night, I kind of figured mafia had this easily, barring a big mistake. (Like targeting both rainbow and pinkie, or double targeting one of the two.)
Though, with the mafia killing two people each night, I kind of figured mafia had this easily, barring a big mistake. (Like targeting both rainbow and pinkie, or double targeting one of the two.)
IMO, the nurse should probably just protect someone other than Pinkie Pie (probably whomever the nurse believes is the other cop).
The way I see it, if the mafia are still allowed to select two victims, they're better off spreading the death at this point - and they may as well ignore Pinkie.
If the Mafia can get 2 kills in, it doesn't matter whether Pinkie survives, because mafia wins in that scenario.
Ergo, nurse should save somepony else: if mafia targets Pinkie, nurse has a respectable 1/3 chance of saving the day by keeping the town up 3 to 2, and if the mafia doesn't target Pinkie, nurse's chances of keeping at least 1 person alive get even better by leaving Pinkie to her fate.
The way I see it, if the mafia are still allowed to select two victims, they're better off spreading the death at this point - and they may as well ignore Pinkie.
If the Mafia can get 2 kills in, it doesn't matter whether Pinkie survives, because mafia wins in that scenario.
Ergo, nurse should save somepony else: if mafia targets Pinkie, nurse has a respectable 1/3 chance of saving the day by keeping the town up 3 to 2, and if the mafia doesn't target Pinkie, nurse's chances of keeping at least 1 person alive get even better by leaving Pinkie to her fate.
This is kind of a vicious game for ponies to play. I mean look at all of these results, petrification, sent to tartarus, imprisonment, etc.
I actually got voted out by my own partner in one game (we were both Mafia/changelings). During the night phase, I gave him a "What the heck?" look, and he just shrugged his shoulders.
Now. The smart move is to kill anypony BESIDES RD an PP. Reason is simple, They already revealed themselves, I and either of them is gonna be protected by nurse... Unless in this version nurse can't save herself. In which case it should be RD and guy in the goggles. Why? Well hooves barely participates at all so he is practically no threat, goggle guy on the other hand does (if memory serves right).
I mean, sure, they can kill Flutters but she barely does anything.
I mean, sure, they can kill Flutters but she barely does anything.
Newbiespud's Note: The next update is a Night Phase. Skip it for now and wait for the page after it if you want to "play along."