Page 916 - Mafia, Part 15

3rd Jun 2017, 6:00 AM
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Mafia, Part 15
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Author Notes:

Newbiespud 3rd Jun 2017, 6:00 AM edit delete
Newbiespud
Author: DragonTrainer

30 Comments:

Venellian 3rd Jun 2017, 6:02 AM edit delete reply
"Dash speak in third pony. Rawrg"
tolich 3rd Jun 2017, 8:53 AM edit delete reply
tolich
Yeah, it's not rainbow!
Digo Dragon 5th Jun 2017, 8:17 AM edit delete reply
Digo Dragon
Just a dash of 3rd person.
Chimerat 3rd Jun 2017, 6:02 AM edit delete reply
Is it just me, or is the wording a bit off in this one?

*tilts head* "Today there's an an athletics try-out happening today" and "uneventlessly"?
Godzfirefly 3rd Jun 2017, 9:02 AM edit delete reply
Real conversation is sometimes messy. Especially when you're trying to build an improvised performance. It's fair for art to imitate that messiness.

Though...saying today twice does sound awkward, I'll admit.
ANW 3rd Jun 2017, 6:03 AM edit delete reply
Well, the nurse missed this time around.
Venseyness 3rd Jun 2017, 6:14 AM edit delete reply
Guys! Kill Pinkie and Rainbow. They're mafia working together to keep you off of their scent.
At least... that's my guess.
Pablo360 3rd Jun 2017, 11:30 AM edit delete reply
Pablo360
Didn't they "get" Rarity last lynching, making them unable to attack two people?
Wulfraed 3rd Jun 2017, 6:34 AM edit delete reply
Okay -- how did the Mafia arrange such a strange "accident"? Slow acting drug to impair his judgement -- seems rather chancy.
Gindranis 3rd Jun 2017, 6:36 AM edit delete reply
Changed his flying goggles with ones that had small timed paintbombs in them.
Rastaba 3rd Jun 2017, 9:08 AM edit delete reply
Rastaba
Tampering with the equipment. Wasn't regulation height or diameter resulting in higher likelihood of injury from a flier at that pace. They swapped them when nobody was looking with magic.
Guest 3rd Jun 2017, 5:17 PM edit delete reply
Unicorn magic, of course. And bribes. A little sudden movement in the equipment here, a few ponies not watching there . . .
HopeFox 4th Jun 2017, 2:14 AM edit delete reply
They arranged for the cute cheerleader ponies to distract Soarin, of course.
Digo Dragon 5th Jun 2017, 8:19 AM edit delete reply
Digo Dragon
Maybe it was a wing-performance enhancing drug. Bigger wings can't fit through small hoops.
Composer99 3rd Jun 2017, 6:48 AM edit delete reply
Town outnumbers mafia 3-2, so they can clinch the game if they nab a mafia this round.
Malroth 3rd Jun 2017, 8:29 AM edit delete reply
Malroth
and gaurantee a loss if they vote wrong, concider things carefully people.
Huor 3rd Jun 2017, 8:38 AM edit delete reply
How would a single lynch of a mafia clinch? They'd go into the next day at 2-1 (assuming the nurse misses again).
Winged Cat 3rd Jun 2017, 10:40 AM edit delete reply
Winged Cat
The mafia vote to lynch non-mafia.

At 2-1, the mafia lynch (exile) the last remaining townie (since they have the majority of votes, whoever they say is out, is out) and win.

At 2-2 (if the nurse succeeds), tie vote at best for the town. That means no lynch, so the mafia keep aiming for a townie until the nurse misses, dropping it to 2-1, and proceed as above.
aerion111 6th Jun 2017, 2:20 AM edit delete reply
aerion111
2-1 would be 2 towns to 1 mafia.
2 mafia to 1 townie would have already been a Mafia victory one 'step' back at 2-2.
So at 2-1, each townie still has a 50/50 shot at voting right if they don't have more info, and voting wrong still means failure.
Specter 3rd Jun 2017, 9:12 AM edit delete reply
Specter
Wow, bad luck for Soarin. I wonder how he clipped his wing? If I was to guess, it was either beer goggles (which isn't that bad, it shifts your vision like two inches to the right), or he went through one of those oval shaped circus hoops.
Winged Cat 3rd Jun 2017, 10:41 AM edit delete reply
Winged Cat
As suggested above: sabotaged equipment. Perhaps the hoop bent in just as he was passing through.
tolich 3rd Jun 2017, 1:38 PM edit delete reply
tolich
His nick name is Clipper. Totally makes sense.
Guest 3rd Jun 2017, 9:38 AM edit delete reply
Ok, for those trying to keep track, here's a quick reference with revealed roles and whether they were exiled by the town (T) or killed (K) and what page it happened on:
Big Mac - civilian T4
Applejack - civilian K6
Derpy - civilian K6
Dr. Whooves - ???
Twilight - civilian K12
Trixie - ???
Rarity - Mafia T13
Fluttershy - ???
Shining - Mafia T9
Dash - ???
Soarin - Cop K15
Luna - civilian K2
Pinkie - ???
Guest 3rd Jun 2017, 9:41 AM edit delete reply
Oh, and here's the role count:
Civilian: 1/6
Cop: 1/2
Mafia: 2/4
Nurse: 1/1
DuskNote 4th Jun 2017, 4:07 AM edit delete reply
So that leaves Dash, Dr. Whooves, Trixie and Fluttershy as the unknowns. If we believe Pinkie is the cop then.... I honestly don't know. Two of them are mafia.... and I have no clue who it is. The fact Fluttershy discovered Twilight makes me think she's the civilian so that leaves the nurse who I think might be Dr Whooves... but that means Dash and Trixie are the mafia. Or it could be that Dash is a civilian or a nurse. I'm so confused...
Needling Haystacks 3rd Jun 2017, 11:22 AM edit delete reply
My guess is they assumed Nurse was going to target Pinkie, assuming that she would be the target. It's a "you know I know you know" thing.
The Old One 3rd Jun 2017, 1:35 PM edit delete reply
Which made targeting anybody else a viable tactic, since the nurese knew the mafia knew who the cop was, and the mafia were pretty sure the nurse would protect the outed cop.

I did not realize that the mafia lost a kill when they were down to half strength. It makes sense after the fact, but i assumed there was going to be a pinkie-free bloodbath in the night portion, and game over.
The Old One 3rd Jun 2017, 1:35 PM edit delete reply
Which made targeting anybody else a viable tactic, since the nurese knew the mafia knew who the cop was, and the mafia were pretty sure the nurse would protect the outed cop.

I did not realize that the mafia lost a kill when they were down to half strength. It makes sense after the fact, but i assumed there was going to be a pinkie-free bloodbath in the night portion, and game over.
Makaira 5th Jun 2017, 11:19 PM edit delete reply
Well, the only reason the nurse would try to protect the cop is because s/he thought the mafia would try to kill the cop. So it goes both ways. Do you do the "obvious" thing or subvert it? Do you think your opponent will do the "obvious" thing or subvert it?

One of the projects I worked on was a simulator to help Marine Corps officers grapple with situations like this and (hopefully) learn to make better decisions. They were finding that in wargames, their officers were always choosing the "safe" option when making their battle plans. That made them eminently predictable, and thus easy for an experienced opponent like the Red Team commander to beat them. You have to develop the confidence to pass up safe choice if you think you can make the alternative work.

Anyhow, despite the mafia being outnumbered 3-2, they still have the upper hand because they know who the mafia are. They basically can't guess wrong - whomever they target *will* be a non-mafia. The citizen, cop, and nurse can. They could lynch, or investigate a non-mafia, or the nurse could protect a mafia. (Though with the number of rounds, it's possible the cop has investigated enough people to know who *isn't* mafia, would by elimination would allow the cop to determine who is mafia.)
Brickman 3rd Jun 2017, 9:21 PM edit delete reply
So if Pinkie Pie is a real cop, and everyone believes her (and after outing Rarity both those statements seem like a guarantee), the town pretty much has this game in the bag.

Since she wouldn't have investigated the other cop she must know AT LEAST one other players' identity. If they're mafia, they're toast. If they're town, then the town has a 2/3 chance of getting today's lynch right even before examining who's acting suspicious. Either way, if they lynch a mafia today and the nurse protects Pinkie, then the only way the mafia could possibly win is if she somehow investigates the same non-Pinkie player they kill (1 in 3 chance) AND the town gets the ensuing 50% guess wrong.

And that's assuming she only knows one person's identity. Their odds are even better if she knows 2.